What Name Is Given to the Wall of Water That Makes Landfall Just Ahead of a Hurricane?

CHAPTER 12 - HURRICANE HAZARDS

A. HURRICANE: THE Phenomenon
B. HISTORICAL OCCURRENCE AND IMPACT ON THE AMERICAS: HURRICANE GILBERT
C. RISK ASSESSMENT AND DISASTER MITIGATION
D. COPING WITH HURRICANES IN Minor TOWNS AND VILLAGES
REFERENCES

SUMMARY

This chapter describes the nature of hurricanes and their subversive capability. Information technology outlines measures that can be taken to reduce the impact of a hurricane and, in particular, identifies appropriate mitigation measures for small towns and villages.

The destruction caused by hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America is a force that has shaped history and will shape the future of the region. The danger arises from a combination of factors that characterize tropical cyclonic storms: ascent in bounding main level, violent winds, and heavy rainfall. In the Greater Caribbean area Basin from 1960 through 1988 (excluding the United states and U.Due south. territories) hurricanes caused more than 20,000 deaths, affected half-dozen 1000000 people, and destroyed property worth over The states$9.5 billion (OFDA, 1989). The slap-up bulk of this impairment was done to the Caribbean area island countries, whose small-scale economies are least able to withstand such impacts.

Data on hurricane damage have been nerveless since the discovery of the Americas, and contempo statistics bear witness that mitigation measures have made a difference since the 1930s. While the ferocity of the storms has non abated over the years, and population has increased substantially in the area, the casualty rate has decreased equally a issue of the incorporation of mitigation measures and the increased effectiveness of preparedness activities. This improvement in saving lives has been countered by a marked increase in property harm. This is a clear indicator that structural mitigation measures are non keeping step with the rapid increase in development in vulnerable areas.

A important feature of this chapter is its detailed discussion of hurricane hazard mitigation in small towns and villages. In this setting, largely beyond the achieve of national mitigation activities, simple strategies are both essential and highly effective.

A. HURRICANE: THE Phenomenon

one. HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT
ii. TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF HURRICANE OCCURRENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN
3. Hazardous CHARACTERISTICS OF HURRICANES

"Tropical cyclone" is the scientific term for a closed meteorological circulation that develops over tropical waters. These large-scale non-frontal depression-pressure systems occur throughout the world over zones referred to as "tropical cyclone basins" (NOAA, 1987). The proper name for them varies: in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific they are chosen "hurricanes" after the Mayan give-and-take for devil, in the northwest Pacific "typhoons," and in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean merely "cyclones." Of all tropical cyclone occurrences, 75 percent develop in the northern hemisphere, and of these, only one out of iii are hurricanes in the northeast Pacific or northwest Atlantic (UNDRO, 1978). The storms of the northern hemisphere travel w; those of the southern hemisphere motion eastward.

In the Atlantic tropical cyclone bowl, which includes the Atlantic Sea, the Caribbean Body of water, and the Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes originate mostly in the northern Atlantic and to a lesser degree in the Caribbean. The areas most at hazard are the Caribbean island countries north of Trinidad (73 strikes by major hurricanes between 1900 and 1988), Mexico and the southeastern United States, Central America northward of Panama, and to a limited extent the northern coast of Due south America (Tomblin, 1979). Hurricanes also originate in the northeast Pacific, where they tin can affect the west declension of Mexico. Nigh of South America is substantially at no hazard, because the tropical southwestern Atlantic and the southeastern Pacific are devoid of these meteorological occurrences, but systems originating on the due west coast of Africa can potentially strike the northernmost part of the continent; for example, in 1988 Hurricane Joan formed on the northwestern coast of Africa and struck the coast of Venezuela and Colombia before hitting eastern Nicaragua. Figure 12-i shows the paths of the hurricanes originating in the Atlantic, the Pacific, and the Caribbean.

i. HURRICANE Evolution

a. Birth: Tropical Low
b. Growth: Tropical Storm and Hurricane
c. Death: Landfall or Dissipation

All of the embryonic tropical depressions that develop into hurricanes originate in similar meteorological weather and showroom the aforementioned life cycle. The distinct stages of hurricane development are divers by the "sustained velocity" of the arrangement's winds-the air current velocity readings maintained for at least one infinitesimal near the center of the System. In the formative stages of a hurricane, the closed isobaric circulation is called a tropical depression. If the sustained velocity of the winds exceeds 63km/h (39 mph), it becomes a tropical storm. At this stage information technology is given a proper name and is considered a threat. When the winds exceed 119km/h (74 mph), the system becomes a hurricane, the most astringent form of tropical storm. Disuse occurs when the tempest moves into nontropical waters or strikes a landmass. If information technology travels into a nontropical environs it is called a subtropical storm and subtropical depression; if landfall occurs. the winds decelerate and information technology becomes again a tropical tempest and depression. Effigy 12-two summarizes this classification.

Figure 12-one - OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORMS AND CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE ^one/

^1/ Wind strength of Beaufort eight and to a higher place

Source: Munchener Ruck. Mapa Mundial de los Riesgos de la Naturaleza. (Munich, Federal Republic of Germany, Munchener Ruckversicherungs: 1988)

a. Nascence: Tropical Depression

Hurricanes are generated at latitudes of viii to fifteen degrees n and south of the Equator as a issue of the normal release of estrus and moisture on the surface of tropical oceans. They help maintain the atmospheric heat and moisture balance between tropical and not-tropical areas. If they did not exist, the equatorial oceans would accumulate heat continuously (Landsberg, 1960).

Hurricane formation requires a ocean surface temperature of at least 27 degrees Celsius (81 degrees Fahrenheit). In the summer months, the sea temperatures in the Caribbean area and Atlantic can reach 29 degrees (84 degrees), making them prime locations for inception. The surface water warms the air, which rises and so is blocked by warmer air coming from the easterly winds. The meeting of these ii air masses creates an atmospheric inversion. At this stage, thunderstorms develop and the inversion may be cleaved, finer lowering the atmospheric pressure.

b. Growth: Tropical Storm and Hurricane

The growth of the system occurs when pressure in the center of the storm drops well below 1000 millibars (mb) while the outer boundary pressure remains normal. When pressure drops, the merchandise winds are propelled in a spiral pattern by the world's rotation. The strong torque forces created by the discrepancy in pressure generate wind velocities proportional to gradient of force per unit area. Equally the energy level increases, the air circulation pattern is inward towards the low pressure center and upward, in a counter-clockwise spiral in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. The bike perpetuates itself and the organized tempest begins a translational movement with velocities of around 32 km/h during germination and upward to 90km/h during the actress-tropical life.

The zone of highest precipitation, most violent winds, and rising sea level is adjacent to the outer wall of the "eye." The management of the winds, however, is not towards the eye only is tangent to the centre wall about 50km from the geometric centre (Mathur, 1987). The organized walls of clouds are composed of adjoining bands which can typically reach a total bore of 450km (Earthscan No. 34-a, 1983). The central eye, unlike the rest of the storm, is characterized equally an area of relatively low wind speeds and no deject embrace with an average bore of 50-80km and a vertical circulation of up to 15km.

Hurricane classification is based on the intensity of the storm, which reflects damage potential. The nearly commonly used categorization method is the one adult by H. Saffir and R.H. Simpson (Effigy 12-3). The decision of a category level depends by and large on barometric pressure and sustained current of air velocities. Levels of storm surge fluctuate greatly due to atmospheric and bathymetric conditions. Thus, the expected storm surge levels are general estimates of a typical hurricane occurrence.

Figure 12-ii CLASSIFICATION OF HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT

Environment	DEVELOPMENT	CRITERIA
Tropical	Low	max sustained winds < or = 63 km/h (39 miles/h)
	Tropical Storm	63 km/h < sustained winds < 119 km/h (74 miles/h)
	Hurricane	sustained winds > or = 119km/h (74 miles/h)
	Tropical Depression (dissipation)	max sustained winds < or = 63km/h (39 miles/h)
Nontropical	Subtropical Storm (dissipation)	63km/h < sustained winds < 119km/h (74 miles/h)
	Subtropical Depression (dissipation)	max sustained winds < or = 63km/h (39 miles/h)

Source: Adapted from Neumann, C.J. et al Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1986 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, 1987).

Figure 12-3 SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE (SSH)

Hurricane Category Number	Sustained Winds		Atmospheric Pressure in the Middle (millibars)	Storm	Surge	Harm
	(km/h)	(miles/h)		(meters)	(feet)	Level
one	119 - 153	74 - 95	980	1.2 - 1.5	4.0 - 4.9	Low
ii	154 - 177	96 - 110	965 - 979	1.8 - 2.4	5.9 - 7.ix	Moderate
3	179 - 209	111 - 130	945 - 964	two.7 - 3.seven	8.ix - 12.2	Extensive
4	211 - 249	131 - 155	920 - 944	4.0 - 5.5	13.0 - xviii.0	Farthermost
5	> 249	> 155	< 920	> 5.5	> eighteen.0	Catastrophic

Source: Adapted from Oliver, J., and Fairbridge, R. The Encyclopedia of Climatology (New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Co., Inc., 1987).

c. Death: Landfall or Dissipation

Typically, a hurricane eventually dissipates over colder waters or land well-nigh ten days afterwards the genesis of the organization. If it travels into a non-tropical environment, information technology loses its energy source and falls into the dominant weather pattern it encounters. If, on the other paw, it hits land, the loss of free energy in combination with the increased roughness of the terrain volition cause it to dissipate speedily (Frank, 1984). When it reaches land in populated areas, it becomes one of the most devastating of all natural phenomena.

2. TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF HURRICANE OCCURRENCE IN THE Caribbean area

The official hurricane season in the Greater Caribbean region begins the offset of June and lasts through November xxx, with 84 percent of all hurricanes occurring during August and September (Frank, 1984). Effigy 12-4 shows the seasonal character of hurricanes. The greatest risk in Mexico and the western Caribbean is at the beginning and end of the season, and in the eastern Caribbean during mid-season.

Every year over 100 tropical depressions or potential hurricanes are monitored, only an average of only ten achieve tropical storm forcefulness and six become hurricanes. These overall averages suggest that activity is uniform from year to year just historical records indicate a high degree of variance, with long periods of tranquility and activeness (Figure 12-5). The Atlantic basin has the widest seasonal variability. In 1907, for example, non a unmarried tropical tempest reached hurricane intensity, while in 1969, there were 12 hurricanes in the northern Atlantic (NOAA, 1987).

Because the cycles vary in periodicity and duration, prediction is difficult. Recent forecasting developments, connecting hurricane activity levels with El Niño and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation accept fabricated it possible to predict the variance in Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with an accuracy of 40 to 50 pct (American Meteorological Club, 1988), only this degree of accuracy, while considered high by meteorological standards, is non good enough for planners trying to develop appropriate emergency response systems. At that place is no doubt that the quality of forecasting will continue to improve, but until that happens planners must rely on historical information to calculate the probability of occurrence in a given twelvemonth. Simpson and Lawrence in 1971 used historical data to make these calculations for the entire east coast of the United States and Gulf of Mexico coast, using 80km (l miles) segments (ESCAP/WMO, 1977).

3. Hazardous CHARACTERISTICS OF HURRICANES

a. Winds
b. Rainfall
c. Storm Surge

a. Winds

Hurricane wind speeds can accomplish up to 250km/h (155mph) in the wall of the hurricane, and gusts can exceed 360km/h (224mph).The destructive power of wind increases with the square of its speed. Thus, a tripling of current of air speed increases destructive power past a factor of ix. Topography plays an important role: wind speed is decreased at depression elevations by physical obstacles and in sheltered areas, while it is increased over exposed hill crests (Davenport, 1985; see Effigy 12-six). Another correspondent to devastation is the upwards vertical force that accompanies hurricanes; the higher the vertical extension of a hurricane, the greater the vertical pulling effect.

Destruction is acquired either by the straight impact of the wind or past flying droppings. The wind itself primarily damages agronomical crops. Entire forests take been flattened by forces that pulled the tree roots from the earth. Human being-made stock-still structures are likewise vulnerable. Alpine buildings can shake or even collapse. The drastic barometric pressure differences in a hurricane can make well-enclosed structures explode and the suction can lift up roofs and entire buildings. But virtually of the destruction, expiry, and injury past wind is due to flying debris (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979), the touch on force of which is directly related to its mass and the square of its velocity. The harm caused by a flying car to whatsoever it strikes will be greater than if the wind had acted alone. Improperly fastened roof sheets or tiles are the most common projectiles. Other frequent objects are antennas, telephone poles, trees, and discrete building parts.

Figure 12-iv - NUMBER OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES (open up bar) AND HURRICANES (solid bar) OBSERVED ON EACH 24-hour interval, MAY one-Dec 31, 1886 THROUGH 1986, IN THE N ATLANTIC OCEAN

Source: Neumann, C.J. et al. Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1986 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, NOM, 1987).

Figure 12-five - Annual DISTRIBUTION OF THE 845 RECORDED TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC REACHING AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM Strength (open up bar) AND THE 496 REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH (solid bar), 1886 THROUGH 1986

Note: The average number of such storms is 8.4 and 4.9 respectively.

Source: Neumann, C.J. et al Tropical Cyclones of the Northward Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1986 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, 1987).

FIGURE 12-half-dozen Island TOPOGRAPHIC Furnishings ON MEAN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS

Source: Davenport, A.1000. Georgiou, P.M., and Surry, D. A Hurricane Air current Adventure Report for the Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica and Belize with Special Consideration to the Influence of Topography. (London, Ontario, Canada: Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Laboratory, The University of Western Ontario, 1985).

Building standards to withstand high wind velocities are prescribed in nigh all countries that face a loftier risk. The codes recommend that structures maintain a certain level of strength in order to withstand the local average wind velocity pressure level, calculated by averaging air current force per unit area over a period of ten minutes for the highest expected wind speed in 50 years. The Caribbean Uniform Building Code (CUBIC) under consideration by the Caribbean countries, prescribes the reference wind velocity force per unit area for each country. Effigy 12-7 shows the relationship betwixt current of air speed, expressed in the codes in terms of meters per 2nd rather than kilometers or miles per hour, and general property impairment. Note the correlation between this and the SSH calibration in Figure 12-three.

b. Rainfall

The rains that accompany hurricanes are extremely variable and hard to predict (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979). They tin exist heavy and last several days or tin can dissipate in hours. The local topography, humidity, and the forward speed of a hurricane in the incidence of precipitation are recognized as of import, but attempts to determine the directly connexion have and then far proved futile.

Intense rainfall causes two types of destruction. The first is from seepage of water into buildings causing structural damage; if the pelting is steady and persistent, structures may just collapse from the weight of the absorbed water. The 2d, more widespread and mutual and much more damaging, is from inland flooding, which puts at hazard all valleys along with their structures and critical transportation facilities, such as roads and bridges. Chapter viii describes flooding in more item.

Landslides, equally secondary hazards, are ofttimes triggered by heavy precipitation. Areas with medium to steep slopes become oversaturated and failure occurs along the weakest zones. Thus, low-lying valley areas are non the merely sites vulnerable to precipitation. Chapter 10 is devoted to this phenomenon.

c. Tempest Surge

A storm surge is a temporary rise in bounding main level caused past the h2o being driven over country primarily by the on-shore hurricane strength winds and only secondarily past the reduction in sea-level barometric force per unit area between the heart of the storm and the outer region. A rough relationship betwixt atmospheric pressure and the storm surge level was shown in Figure 12-3. Another estimate is that for every drop of 100 millibars (mb) in barometric force per unit area, a 1m (3.28 anxiety) rising in water level is expected. The magnitude of the surge at a specific site is likewise a function of the radius of the maximum hurricane winds, the speed of the arrangement's approach, and the foreshore bathymetry. It is here that the difficulty arises in predicting storm surge levels. Historical records indicate that the increase in mean ocean level can be negligible or tin be as much as vii.5 meters (24.vi feet) (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979). The most vulnerable coastal zones are those with the highest historical frequencies of landfalls. Regardless of its height, the great dome of h2o is oft 150km (93 miles) wide and moves toward the coastline where the hurricane middle makes landfall.

Figure 12-7 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WIND SPEED AND General PROPERTY Impairment

Wind Speed	Damage
22-35m/sec	minor
36-45 m/sec	intermediate (loss of windows)
>45m/sec	structural

Source: ECLAC/UNEP. Natural Disasters Overview. Coming together of Authorities-Nominated Experts to Review the Draft Action Programme for the Wider Caribbean Region, Caracas, Venezuela, 28 Jan - 1 February (Caracas: ECLAC/UNEP, 1979).

Storm surges present the greatest threat to coastal communities. 90 percent of hurricane fatalities are due to drowning caused past a tempest surge. Astringent flooding from a storm surge affects low-lying areas up to several kilometers inland. The elevation of the surge tin can be greater if homo-made structures in trophy and estuaries constrict water catamenia and compound the flooding. If heavy pelting accompanies tempest surge and the hurricane landfall occurs at a peak high tide, the consequences tin can exist catastrophic. The excess water from the heavy rains inland creates fluvial flooding, and the simultaneous increment in ocean level blocks the seaward menstruation of rivers, leaving nowhere for the water to go.

B. HISTORICAL OCCURRENCE AND Bear on ON THE AMERICAS: HURRICANE GILBERT

i. JAMAICA
2. Mexico

Hurricanes are past far the about frequent hazardous phenomena in the Caribbean area. Tomblin (1981) states that in the last 250 years the West Indies has been devastated by 3 volcanic eruptions, 8 earthquakes, and 21 major hurricanes. If tropical storms are also taken into account, the Greater Caribbean area has suffered from hundreds of such events.

The economic and social consequences of this miracle are astringent, particularly in less developed countries, where a pregnant percentage of the Gross domestic product can be destroyed by a unmarried event. Figure 12-viii lists the major hurricanes and tropical storms in the Americas and the impairment they caused.

Without a comprehensive list of costs and casualties, the economic and social disruption caused by a disastrous event is hard to grasp. Information technology is non the purpose of this chapter to provide all this data, which tin can be establish in the groovy volume of literature on individual events. Merely a brief review of how 1 hurricane affected various sectors in Mexico and Jamaica volition help planners to understand the complexities of the turmoil that such a natural event can cause.

Hurricane Gilbert struck the Caribbean and the Gulf Coast of United mexican states in 1988, causing comprehensive impairment in Mexico, Jamaica, Haiti, Guatemala, Republic of honduras, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Costa rica, and Nicaragua. Arriving in Saint Lucia as a tropical depression, information technology resulted in harm estimated at The states$2.5 million from the flooding and landslides caused past the heavy rain (Caribbean Disaster News No.xv/16,1988).

The physical variations in this hurricane resulted in unlike types of damage. It was considered a "dry" hurricane when it struck Jamaica, discharging less precipitation than would exist expected. Thus, well-nigh of the damage was due to wind strength which blew abroad roofs. Past the fourth dimension it approached Mexico, however, information technology was accompanied by torrential rains, which caused massive flooding far inland.

Hurricane Gilbert began as a tropical wave on September 3, 1988, on the north coast of Africa. Six days later, the arrangement was across the Atlantic and had evolved into Gilbert as a tropical storm. It struck Jamaica on September 12 as a Category three (SSH Scale) hurricane and traveled westward over the unabridged length of the island. Gaining strength as information technology moved northwest, it hit the Yucatan Peninsula, in Mexico, on September 14, every bit a Category 5 (SSH Scale) hurricane. By September 16 it had been weakened and finally dissipated after moving inland over the east declension of Mexico.

Sustained winds in Jamaica were measured at 223 km/h, and greater beyond high ridges. The barometric pressure was the lowest ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere at 888mb, 200km due east-southeast of Jamaica. The barometric pressure when it hit Jamaica was 960mb. The frontward speed was 31 km/h. The eye had a 56km diameter, but little tempest surge occurred in Jamaica. Average rainfall registered from 250mm to 550mm. Serious flooding due to storm surge and heavy rains was not a problem. Landslides occurred at high elevations where most of the rainfall was concentrated.

By the fourth dimension Hurricane Gilbert hit Mexico it had inverse characteristics. In the Yucatan the storm surge reached v meters in meridian and rainfall averaged 400mm. By the time Gilbert struck the northern declension of United mexican states, the winds had increased to 290km/h and the storm surge had reached 6 meters.

i. JAMAICA

a. Affected Population and Damage to Social Sectors
b. Impact on the Economic system and Damage to Productive Sectors
c. Harm to Natural Resources

a. Affected Population and Damage to Social Sectors

Even though the loss of life was express to 45 reported deaths, 500,000 people lost their homes when approximately 280,000 houses-almost 55 pct of the housing stock-were damaged. Of these, xiv,000, or 5 percentage, were totally destroyed and 64,000 were seriously damaged.

b. Bear on on the Economy and Impairment to Productive Sectors

The Planning Institute of Jamaica estimated the total direct damage at The states$956 1000000. Almost half was accounted for by losses from agriculture, tourism, and manufacture; 30 pct from housing, wellness, and education infrastructure; and 20 percent from economical infrastructure. The economic projections for 1988 had to be adjusted dramatically, to permit for expected losses of United states of america$130 1000000 in export earnings, and more than US$100 million in tourism earnings; therefore, instead of the expected v percent growth in Gdp, a decline of 2 per centum was projected. Other estimates were for increases in inflation (xxx pct), government public expenditures (U.s.a.$200 1000000), and public sector deficit (from 2.eight percent to ten.half dozen percent of GDP).

Figure 12-8 MAJOR TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE Bowl

REGION/COUNTRY	Twelvemonth/MONTH	CASUALTIES	PEOPLE Afflicted	DAMAGE THOUSANDS/U.s.a.$	HURRICANE NAME	SOURCE
Caribbean area
Antigua	1792 00					Tomblin
	1950 09	two		1,000	Canis familiaris	OFDA
	1960 09	2			Donna	OFDA
	1966 09					OFDA
Barbados	1780 00	4,326				Tomblin
	1786 00					Tomblin
	1831 00	2,000				Tomblin
	1955 09	57			Janet	OFDA
Belize	1931 09	1,500		7,500		OFDA
	1955 09	sixteen		v,000	Janet	OFDA
	1961 09	275		60,000		OFDA
	1974 09		70,000	iv,000	Carmen, Fifi	OFDA
	1978 09	5	vi,000	vi,000	Greta	OFDA
Cuba	1768 00	1,000				Tomblin
	1844 00					Tomblin
	1846 00	500				Tomblin
	1926 10	600				OFDA
	1932 11	two,500				OFDA
	1935 09	35	500			OFDA
	1948 09	three		12,000		OFDA
	1948 10	xi	300	6,000		OFDA
	1963 x	1,750				Tomblin
	1966 09	5	156,000	xviii,000	Inez	OFDA
	1968 ten	0			Gladys	OFDA
	1982 06	24	105,000	85,000		OFDA
	1985 11	4	476,891		Kate	OFDA
Dominica	1806 00					Tomblin
	1834 00	200				Tomblin
	1963 09			2,600	Edith	OFDA
	1979 08	xl	70,000	44,650	David, Frederick	OFDA
	1984 10	ii	10,000	2,000	Klaus	OFDA
Dominican Democracy	1930 09	two.000	6,000	40,000		OFDA
	1963 x	400		threescore,000	Flora	OFDA
	1964 08	7		1,000	Cleo	OFDA
	1966 09	74	vii,000	5,000	Inez	OFDA
	1979 08	1,400	1,200,000	150.000	David, Frederick	OFDA
	1987 09	three		23,700	Emily	OFDA
Grenada	1963 09	6			Flora	OFDA
Haiti	1909 xi	150				OFDA
	1915 08	1,600				OFDA
	1935 ten	two,150				OFDA
	1954 10	410	250,000		Hazel	OFDA
	1963 10	5,000		180,000	Flora	OFDA
	1964 08	100	fourscore.000	10,000	Cleo	OFDA
	1966 09	480	67,000	20,000	Inez	OFDA
	1979 08	8	1,110		David	OFDA
	1980 08	300	330,000	xl,000	Conflicting	OFDA
	1988 09	54	870,000	91,286	Gilbert	OFDA
Jamaica	1722 00	400				Tomblin
	1780 00	300				Tomblin
	1786 00					Tomblin
	1880 00	thirty				Tomblin
	1903 08	65				OFDA
	1912 xi	142				OFDA
	1917 09	57				OFDA
	1933 10	10				OFDA
	1935 10		2,000			OFDA
	1944 08	32				OFDA
	1951 08	154	xx,000	56.000	Charlie	OFDA
	1963 10	11		11,525	Flora	OFDA
	1980 08	half-dozen	30,000	64,000	Conflicting	OFDA
	1985 11	7		5,200	Kate	OFDA
	1988 09	49	810,000	1,000.000	Gilbert	OFDA
St. Kitts/Nevis	1772 00					Tomblin
	1792 00					Tomblin
	1928 09					OFDA
	1955 01					OFDA
Saint Lucia	1960 07				Abby	OFDA
	1963 09	x		3,465	Edith	OFDA
	1980 08	nine	70,000	87,990	Alien	OFDA
St. Vincent	1898 00	300				Tomblin
	1955 09	122			Janet	OFDA
	1980 08		xx,000	16,300	Alien	OFDA
	1987 09		200	five,300	Emily	OFDA
Trinidad/Tobago	1933 06	13		3,000		OFDA
	1963 09	24		30,000	Flora	OFDA
CENTRAL AMERICA
Costa Rica	1988 10	28	120,000		Joan	OFDA
Republic of el salvador	1969 09	2	four,600	one,600	Francelia	OFDA
Guatemala	1969 09	269	x,200	15,000	Francelia	OFDA
Honduras	1969 09		8,000	19,000	Francelia	OFDA
	1974 09	viii,000	600,000	540,000	Fifi	OFDA
	1978 09		2,000	1,000	Greta	OFDA
Nicaragua	1971 09	35	2,800	380	Edith	OFDA
	1988 10	120	300,000	400,000	Joan	OFDA
Panama	1988 ten	7	7,000	60,000	Joan	OFDA
North AMERICA (EXCLUDING THE UNITED STATES)
Mexico	1951 08	50				OFDA
	1955 09	300			Hilda	OFDA
	1955 09	500		forty,000	Janet	OFDA
	1960 10	960				OFDA
	1961 11	436			Tara	OFDA
	1966 10	14	fourscore,000	24,000	Inez	OFDA
	1967 08	77	271,000	184,000	Katrina, Beulah	OFDA
	1975 ten	29			Olivia	OFDA
	1976 10	600	175,000	100,000	Liza	OFDA
	1977 09	10	50,000		Anita	OFDA
	1982 09	225	50,000	30,000	Paul	OFDA
	1983 10	135			Tico	OFDA
	1988 09	240	100,000		Gilbert	OFDA

Sources: Tomblin, J. "Natural Disasters in the Caribbean: A Review of Hazards and Vulnerability," in Caribbean area Disaster Preparedness Seminar, St. Lucia, June, 1979 (Washington, D.C.: OFDA/USAID, 1979); and Function of Foreign Disaster Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Evolution (OFDA/USAID). Disaster History: Pregnant Information on Major Disasters Worldwide, 1900-Present. July, 1989. (Washington, DC.- OFDA/USAID. 1089).

As expected, the economic activity most affected was agronomics, with the total devastation of banana and broiler production and of more than l percentage of the java and kokosnoot crops. Capital letter losses to the sector were estimated at J$0.7 billion. According to some calculations, the loss of revenue through 1992 will exist US$214 meg.

Other productive sectors were also affected seriously. Manufacturing suffered J$600 million (in 1989 dollars) in losses, mainly from a reject of 12 percent in its exports. Tourism lost US$90 1000000 in foreign exchange, with 5 percent fewer visitor arrivals in the third quarter of 1988 than during the aforementioned fourth dimension flow in 1987. Loss of electricity decreased bauxite product by 14.2 pct for that quarter compared to the third quarter of the previous year, and alumina exports declined by 21 percent.

c. Damage to Natural Resources

The coastal resources of Jamaica suffered all-encompassing damage from hurricane forces. Information technology is estimated that 50 percentage of the beaches were seriously eroded, with the northeast coast beingness the about afflicted. An estimated threescore pct of all the trees in the mangrove areas were lost, 50 percent of the oyster civilization was unsalvageable, and other non-measurable harm occurred to coral reefs and the water quality of the island (Bacon, 1989).

ii. United mexican states

a. Affected Population and Damage to Social Sectors
b. Impact on the Economic system and Damage to Productive Sectors
c. Damage to Natural Resources

a. Affected Population and Harm to Social Sectors

The Government of United mexican states reported that the hurricane caused 200 deaths and approximately 200,000 homeless. In the state of Nuevo Leon, where the Monterrey area suffered from extensive flooding, 100 people died and 30,000 housing units were destroyed.

b. Touch on the Economic system and Damage to Productive Sectors

The tourism manufacture suffered the greatest damage.

The tourist areas of the state of Quintana Roo, for example, suffered Usa$100 million in directly damage and lost an estimated US$ninety meg in revenues. The Inter-American Development Depository financial institution, after evaluating the damage to infrastructure in this sector, lent The states$41.v meg for reconstruction.

c. Damage to Natural Resource

The impact across the Yucatan Peninsula in terms of damage to wild fauna, beaches, and coral reefs was much college than on the coasts of Jamaica. Extensive reduction in beaches and coral reefs was reported, and big numbers of birds lost their lives.

C. Run a risk Assessment AND DISASTER MITIGATION

1. DETERMINING THE RISK POSED By HURRICANES
ii. MITIGATING Confronting HURRICANE RISK

ane. DETERMINING THE Take chances POSED Past HURRICANES

The hazard posed past hurricanes to a item country is a role of the likelihood that a hurricane of a certain intensity will strike it and of the vulnerability of the country to the impact of such a hurricane. Vulnerability is a complex concept, which has concrete, social, economic and political dimensions. Information technology includes such things equally the ability of structures to withstand the forces of a hazardous event, the extent to which a community possesses the means to organize itself to prepare for and deal with emergencies, the extent to which a country'south economy depends on a single production or service that is easily affected by the disaster, and the degree of centralization of public decision-making (Wilches-Chaux, 1989).

Population centers and economical activities in the region are highly vulnerable to disruption and harm from the effects of extreme atmospheric condition. They are largely concentrated in coastal plains and low-lying areas field of study to tempest surges and landborne flooding. Loftier demands placed on existing lifeline infrastructure, combined with inadequate funds for the expansion and maintenance of these vital systems, have increased their susceptibility to breakdowns. Uncontrolled growth in urban centers degrades the physical surroundings and its natural protective capabilities. Building sites rubber from natural hazards, pollution, and accidents have become inaccessible to the urban poor, who are left to build their shelters on steep hillsides or in inundation-prone areas (Bender, 1989). Agronomics, particularly the tillage of bananas for consign, is oft practiced without the necessary conservation measures respective to the soil, slope, and rainfall characteristics of the area.

Communities, countries, or regions differ greatly in vulnerability, and hence in the furnishings they may suffer from hurricanes of similar force. The very size of a country is a critical determinant of vulnerability: small island nations tin can be affected over their entire area, and major infrastructure and economic activities may be crippled by a unmarried outcome. Scarce resources that were earmarked for evolution projects accept to be diverted to relief and reconstruction, setting back economic growth.

To assess future risks, planners must report historical trends and correlate them with probable future changes. The main cause of increasing vulnerability is the population movement to high-risk areas. Almost cities in the Due west Indies are in low coastal zones threatened past storm surge (Tomblin, 1979), and they keep to grow.

The economical sectors nigh afflicted by hurricanes are agriculture and tourism. Together, these represent a major portion of the economy for the countries in the Caribbean. Particularly for island countries, agriculture is the most vulnerable activity (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979). Hurricanes have disastrous effects on banana crops in detail. During Hurricane Alien, in Baronial of 1980, Saint Lucia suffered U.s.$36.five million in damage, with 97 percent of the banana plantations destroyed. In St. Vincent 95 percent, and in Dominica 75 percent, of the banana plantations were ruined (Earthscan No. 34a, 1983). Damage to the tourism industry is more difficult to quantify since it includes many other economically identifiable sectors such every bit transportation and hotel services.

Crop statistics rarely account for long-term losses. The increased salinity in the soil due to the tempest surge can have detrimental furnishings on product in subsequent years. For example, Hurricane Fifi decreased production in Honduras past 20 pct the year information technology occurred, merely in the following year production was downwards by 50 percent. How much of this reduction was due to the increase in salinity is unclear, but information technology is known that salt destroys vegetation slowly.

two. MITIGATING Against HURRICANE Risk

a. Reduction of Risk at the International Level
b. Reduction of Chance at the National Level
c. Reduction of Take chances at the Local Level

Once the risk posed by hurricanes is understood, specific mitigation measures tin can exist taken to reduce the take a chance to communities, infrastructure, and economic activities. Man and economic losses can be greatly reduced through well-organized efforts to implement appropriate preventive measures, in public awareness and in issuing timely warnings. Thank you to these measures, countries in the region take experienced a drastic reduction in the number of deaths acquired by hurricanes.

Mitigation measures are most toll-effective when implemented as function of the original programme or structure of vulnerable structures. Typical examples are the application of building standards designed for hurricane-force winds, the abstention of areas that tin be affected by tempest surge or flooding, and the planting of windbreaks to protect wind-sensitive crops. Retrofitting buildings or other projects to make them hurricane-resistant is more plush and sometimes impossible. Once a projection is located in a alluvion-prone area, it may non exist feasible to movement information technology to safer ground.

The overall record on mitigation of hurricane risk in the Caribbean area and Central America is not very encouraging. Cases abound of new investments in the public or productive sectors that were exposed to meaning hazard run a risk because of inappropriate design or location, and even of projects that were rebuilt in the same way on the same site later having been destroyed a first time. Other cases tin can be cited of schools and hospitals funded with bilateral aid that were built to design standards suitable for the donor country but incapable of resisting hurricane-strength winds prevalent in the recipient country.

The tourism sector in the Caribbean is notorious for its credible disregard of the risk of hurricanes and associated hazards. A hotel circuitous congenital with bereft setback from the high-water marker not only risks being damaged by moving ridge action and tempest surge, but interferes with the normal processes of beach formation and dune stabilization, thus reducing the effectiveness of a natural organization of protection confronting wave action. After the first serious damage is incurred the owners of the hotel volition most likely decide to rebuild on the same site and invest in a seawall, rather than consider moving the structure to a recommended setback.

a. Reduction of Risk at the International Level

In the past iii decades the technological capacity to monitor hurricanes has improved dramatically, and along with information technology the casualty rate has declined. New technology permits the identification of a tropical low and on-fourth dimension monitoring as the hurricane develops. The greatest advance has occurred in the Usa, but developing countries benefit greatly considering of the effective warning machinery. The computer models as well generate vast quantities of data useful for planners in developing nations.

Computer models that estimate tracking, landfall, and potential damage were starting time implemented in 1968 past the U.S. National Hurricane Eye (NHC). At this point there are five operational rails guidance models: Beta and Advection Model (BAM), Climatology and Persistance (CLIPER), a Statistical-dynamical model (NHC90), Quasi-Lagrangian model (QLM) and the barotropic VICBAR. They vary in capacity and methodology and occasionally outcome in conflicting predictions, though fewer than formerly. The NHC evaluates incoming data on all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific tropical whirlwind basin and bug an official track and intensity forecast consisting of center positions and maximum one-minute current of air speeds for 0, 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours.

The NHC has also developed a hurricane surge model named Sea, Lake and Overland Surges (SLOSH) to simulate the effects of hurricanes every bit they arroyo land. Its predecessor SPLASH, used in the 1960s, was useful for modeling hurricane effects along smoothen coastlines, just SLOSH adds to this a capability to gauge flooding in inland areas. These results can be used in planning evacuation routes.

A computerized model that assesses the long-term vulnerability of littoral areas to tropical cyclones has also been adult. This model, the National Hurricane Center Risk Analysis Program (HURISK), uses historical information on 852 hurricanes since 1886. The file contains tempest positions, maximum sustained winds, and key pressures (unavailable for early years) at six-60 minutes intervals. When the user provides a location and the radius of interest, the model determines hurricane occurrences, dates, storm headings, maximum winds, and forward speeds. Vulnerability studies brainstorm when the median occurrence date, direction distribution, distribution of maximum winds, probability of at least x number of hurricanes passing over n consecutive years, and gamma distribution of speeds are adamant. Planners can use these objective return period calculations to evaluate an otherwise subjective state of affairs.

b. Reduction of Risk at the National Level

1 of the nearly important steps a country can have to mitigate the impact of hurricanes is to comprise risk assessment and mitigation mensurate design into development planning. The design of basic mitigation measures begins with the compilation of all historical records of former hurricane activity in the country, to determine the frequency and severity of past occurrences. Reliable meteorological data for each event, ranging from technical studies to newspaper reports, should exist gathered. With all the data in place, a written report of (1) the distribution of occurrences for months of a year, (2) frequencies of wind strengths and management, (iii) frequencies of storm surges of diverse heights along dissimilar coastal sections, and (four) frequencies of river flooding and their spatial distribution should be undertaken. The statistical analysis should provide quantitative support for planning strategies.

The design of mitigation measures should follow the statistical assay and consider long-term effects. Both not-structural and structural mitigation measures should exist considered, taking into business relationship the difficulties of implementation.

Non-structural measures consist of policies and evolution practices that are designed to avoid risk, such every bit land apply guidelines, forecasting and warning, and public awareness and educational activity. Much credit for the reduction of casualties from hurricanes in the Caribbean should be given to the Pan Caribbean Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Project (PCDPPP), which has worked effectively with national governments on motivating the population to accept preventive measures, such every bit strengthening roof tie-downs, and on establishing forecasting and warning measures.

Structural mitigation measures include the evolution of building codes to control building pattern, methods, and materials. The structure of breakwaters, diversion channels, and storm surge gates and the establishment of tree lines are a few examples of mitigation from a public works standpoint.

c. Reduction of Risk at the Local Level

The effectiveness of national emergency preparedness offices of countries in the region is often seriously express because of inadequate institutional support and a shortage of technical and financial resource. In the smaller Caribbean islands, these offices are mostly one-person operations, with the person in charge responsible for many other non-emergency matters. It would be unrealistic to expect them to be able to act finer at the local level in cases of area-wide emergencies, such every bit those acquired past hurricanes. It is therefore essential to heighten the capacity of the population in small towns and villages to set up for and respond to emergencies past their own ways.

From 1986 through 1989, the OAS/Natural Hazards Project has worked with several Eastern Caribbean countries to evaluate the vulnerability of small towns and villages to natural hazards, and train local disaster managers and community leaders in organizing run a risk assessments and mitigation in their communities. These activities have resulted in the preparation of a training manual with accompanying video for apply by local leaders. This effort has focused on lifeline networks-transportation, communications, water, electricity, sanitation-and critical facilities related to the welfare of the inhabitants, such every bit hospitals and health centers, schools, police and burn down stations, community facilities, and emergency shelters.

The residuum of this chapter is dedicated to a summary overview of the process by which the leadership in a modest town or village can introduce constructive take chances mitigation.

D. COPING WITH HURRICANES IN Pocket-size TOWNS AND VILLAGES

ane. Inventory of Lifeline Networks and Critical Facilities
2. Learning the Performance of Lifelines and Facilities and Their Potential for Disruption past Hurricane
iii. Checking the Vulnerability of the Lifelines and Facilities through Field Inspection and Investigation
4. Establishing a Positive Working Relationship with the Agencies and Companies that Manage the Infrastructure and Services of the Community
5. Developing an Agreement of the Total Hazard to the Community
6. Formulating a Mitigation Strategy

The degree to which local communities can survive damage and disruption from severe storms and hurricanes likewise depends to a large extent on how well the basic services and infrastructure, the mutual goods of the community, stand up to the wind and pelting accompanying these storms. Whereas individual families bear full responsibility for preparing their own shelter to withstand the effects of storms, they have a much more limited role in ensuring that their common services are safeguarded, yet 1 that cannot be neglected.

Non-governmental agencies involved in low income housing structure and upgrading have developed practical and low cost measures for increasing the resistance of self-built houses to hurricane forcefulness winds. Typical of efforts of this nature is the work performed by the Construction Resources and Development Eye (CRDC) in Jamaica, which produced educational materials and organized workshops on house and roof reconstruction following Hurricane Gilbert.

The principal responsibility for introducing an awareness and concern in the community regarding the risk posed by hurricanes to the common good rests with the community leadership and local-or district-disaster coordinator, if such a function exists. It involves a lengthy process of identifying the issues, mobilizing resource from within the community and from outside, and building support for common activity.

Such a procedure consists of vi steps: (i) making an inventory of lifeline networks and disquisitional facilities; (2) learning the operation of these and their potential for disruption by a hurricane; (3) checking the vulnerability of the lifelines and critical facilities through field inspection and investigation; (4) establishing a positive working relationship with the agencies and companies that manage the infrastructure and services of the customs; (5) developing an understanding of the full gamble to the community; (six) formulating and implementing a mitigation strategy.

ane. Inventory of Lifeline Networks and Critical Facilities

Lifeline networks and critical facilities are those elements in the economic and social infrastructure that provide essential goods and services to the population in towns and villages. Their proper functioning is a direct concern of the community, since disruption affects the entire population.

The community leadership should gradually build up an inventory of these elements by locating them in a get-go instance on a large-scale map (1:5,000 or 1:two,500) of the community. The base of operations maps tin be obtained from the town and country departments or concrete planning offices. The road network should betoken the road hierarchy (highway, principal admission to settlement, local streets) and the location of bridges and other ceremonious works such as major route cuts and retaining walls. Like treatment should be given to the electricity and phone networks and the water system. Residential areas and areas of economic activity should also be identified.

Diverse sources tin can exist tapped to obtain this information. Water, electricity, and telecommunication companies tin exist called upon to depict their networks on the maps for the area in question. The local representative of the ministry building of public works or physical planning function tin can assist with the identification of the road network and the location of public facilities housing important services.

two. Learning the Operation of Lifelines and Facilities and Their Potential for Disruption by Hurricane

Community leaders should periodically organize brief sessions in which the engineers or managers responsible for the dissimilar lifelines and facilities tin explain the workings of their systems to selected residents who may be involved in disaster preparedness and response. The maps that were prepared earlier should be helpful during these sessions, while at the same time item details tin be reviewed and updated. The focus of these sessions should be:

- Identification of the dissimilar elements that make up the system, their interaction, and their interdependency.

- How the unlike elements part, what can go wrong, and what the normal repair and maintenance procedures are.

- How each of the elements of the system can be afflicted past the forces accompanying a hurricane.

- What the consequences of a hurricane could be for the performance of the arrangement and for the users.

WHAT ARE THE LIFELINE NETWORKS:

Road network, with roads, bridges, road cuts and retaining walls, elevated roads, drainage works.

Water system, with surface intakes, wells, pipelines, treatment plants, pumping stations, storage tanks or reservoirs, h2o mains, and distribution network.

Electricity system, with generating found, transmission lines, substations, transformers, and distribution network.

Telecommunication, with ground station, exchanges, microwave transmission towers, aerial and underground cables, and open line distribution network.

Sanitation organization, with collector network, handling constitute and sewage fallout; public washrooms and toilet facilities; solid waste product drove and disposal.

WHAT ARE THE Critical FACILITIES:

Hospitals, health centers, schools, churches.

Fire stations, police stations, customs centers, shelters, and other public buildings that firm vital functions that play a role in emergencies.

3. Checking the Vulnerability of the Lifelines and Facilities through Field Inspection and Investigation

The vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure elements will be adamant kickoff of all by their location with respect to take a chance-prone areas. Storm surges and moving ridge activity can inflict severe harm in waterfront and depression-lying coastal areas; heavy rains accompanying the hurricanes can cause flash flooding or riverine flooding along the river banks and in low-lying areas; rain can also cause land slippages and mudslides on steep slopes and unstable roadcuts; and structures in exposed areas such as ridges and bluffs are particularly vulnerable to wind damage.

Hazard-decumbent areas should be systematically identified and located on the lifeline and critical facilities map, to show where lifeline networks and critical facilities may be specially vulnerable.

The next step consists of a visual inspection and observation of all important infrastructure elements and disquisitional facilities. Details of location and construction that may touch on vulnerability should be noted and recorded on a sheet, together with a brief description of the possible damage that may occur.

4. Establishing a Positive Working Relationship with the Agencies and Companies that Manage the Infrastructure and Services of the Community

Once the community leadership has nerveless a fair corporeality of information, a series of consultations should be organized with the engineers or managers responsible for each of the lifeline and disquisitional facilities of the settlement, or with their local representatives, and further elaboration of the information collected thus far should take identify.

Such consultations provide an opportunity for the community leadership to acquire well-nigh the maintenance and emergency repair policies practiced in their settlements past the dissimilar agencies and utility companies, to get to know the officers responsible for carrying out emergency repairs, and to find out how to contact them under normal circumstances also every bit in emergencies.

Good contacts between bureau representatives and community leadership are of groovy help in exploring the coincidence of interest betwixt the residents on the one manus and the service agencies and companies on the other. Through effectively managed participation by the residents in such tasks as monitoring the state of repair of the infrastructure or keeping drains articulate, the customs can receive better services at a lower cost to the agencies responsible. The bodily hiring of workers or small firms from the settlement to execute some of the agencies' tasks should be encouraged wherever possible.

LEARNING FROM PAST DISASTERS

Very valuable information most the vulnerability of small-scale towns and villages tin can be obtained by inquiring into the local hurricane harm history. This is done through interviews with older residents in the community, retired public works officials familiar with the area, and other informants; by searching in onetime newspapers, and documents; and other ways that may be appropriate in the particular setting.

The data should exist organized past effect, and within each event by infrastructure element that was afflicted. Damage that resulted from that particular bear upon should be briefly described. An effort should be fabricated to collect at to the lowest degree the following data:

a. The EVENT:

- date of occurrence
- duration
- areas afflicted
- measures of force (current of air speed, height of flood waters)
- other characteristics that distinguish the event from others

b. The particular ELEMENT that was affected:

- class and type of element

- physical characteristics

- any information on what may have fabricated the element vulnerable at that time-for example, poor country of repair or accumulated debris

c. The Impairment that was caused:

- quantitative and qualitative clarification of directly physical damage
- description of indirect impairment, such as loss of role, interruption of service, loss of Jobs

five. Developing an Understanding of the Total Adventure to the Community

To be meaningful, the view of the chance posed by hurricanes to a settlement should include the perspective of the population and its economic activities. In such an integrated view, vulnerability is manifestly more than than the sum of the technical deficiencies experienced by structures or equipment in the face of excessive natural forces. The traditional sectoral organization of the public system provides a poor basis for an integrated vulnerability analysis, since it tends to overlook the dependency and interaction between different infrastructure systems, which are often major determinants of the vulnerability of a society.

The different pieces of information collected so far will have to be put together to create an understanding of the total chance to which the settlement can exist discipline, and of the variations of this risk inside the settlement according to the location and vulnerability of specific elements of the infrastructure. The following techniques take proved helpful in this exercise.

- Creating a visual image

All the information nerveless earlier is compiled on the big-scale base map of the settlement, either straight on the same map, on acetate overlays, or a few dissimilar copies. The final number of maps depends on the scale of the base of operations map and the complexity of the data.

INVOLVING THE Community IN VULNERABILITY REDUCTION

In St. Kitts and Nevis, the Ministry building of Education, the Ministry of Public Works, and the Disaster Preparedness Part organized local residents to repair the schools with materials donated by USAID. The school children benefited from safer, more operable buildings, while the community as a whole benefited from having safer hurricane shelters, a function which school buildings across the island automatically acquire during the hurricane season.

EXAMPLES FOR Customs ACTION

Contributions that local communities can make to reducing the vulnerability of their basic services are typically non-structural, and are built around routine monitoring and maintenance. Some examples:

- Avoid throwing garbage, especially large objects such as tires, tree branches, and appliances, into gullies and rivers. These tend to accrue most bridges and culverts, forming obstacles to normal water catamenia.

- Do not remove natural vegetation from river and gully banks, and from cut slopes, in order to avoid accelerated erosion of the banks.

- Proceed roadside drainage clear of silt and other objects; pay special attention to crossover culverts.

- Do non remove sand and stones from beaches.

- Proceed overhanging branches away from electricity and telephone lines.

- Do not tamper with electricity/telephone poles; written report any visible signs of deterioration of the poles or their stays.

- Study whatever visible signs of deterioration to public buildings, paying special attending to roofs and windows.

- Exercise non interfere with h2o intakes; written report excessive silting or obstructions.

The maps will highlight where chancy events can strike, who suffers the risks, what functions are threatened, where direct damage can exist experienced, and what the level of risk is.

- Creating touch scenarios

With the help of the maps, much can be learned about the take chances to which the community is subject field by formulating realistic scenarios of the impact of a hurricane on the settlement and simulating the consequences for population, lifelines, and disquisitional facilities.

These scenarios can be reviewed with diverse groups in the community. Discussion of the different scenarios creates the perfect background against which to kickoff thinking about what the customs can do to reduce the chance, which is after all the purpose of the exercise.

6. Formulating a Mitigation Strategy

The conception of a strategy to introduce appropriate mitigation measures that reply to the community's priorities is the culmination of all the efforts expended on the vulnerability analysis and gamble assessment.

It is important that the customs leadership focus on identifying realistic mitigation measures and proposing a uncomplicated implementation strategy. The common pitfall of identifying measures that require substantial funding should exist avoided past concentrating on non-structural measures. Typical of the measures that should be emphasized are those that can be integrated into routine maintenance or upgrading of infrastructure; the avoidance of environmental degradation that can decrease the natural protective chapters of resources such as sand dunes, mangroves, and other natural vegetative coverage; and prevention by means of proper planning and design of new investments.

It is also of import to establish the role of the different governmental levels and agencies in the country in the implementation of a mitigation strategy. The range of deportment under the control of a modest community is plain quite limited, and depends on the degree of autonomy of the local government, the level of resource it controls, and the expertise it is able to mobilize.

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Salary, P. Cess of the Economic Impacts of Hurricane Gilbert on Coastal and Marine Resources in Jamaica. UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies, no. 110 (Kingston, Jamaica, 1989).

Bender, S. "Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Latin America and the Caribbean area" in Colloquium on Disasters, Sustainability and Development: A Look to the 1990's. The Environs Department and the Human Resources Evolution Segmentation of the World Banking company (Washington, D.C.: The World Depository financial institution, 1989).

Cambers, G. UNESCO Regional Part for Science and Engineering science for Latin America and the Caribbean. An Overview of Coastal Zone Management in Six Due east Caribbean Islands: Grenada, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kitts, Antigua, East Caribbean Erosion Coasts and Beaches in the Caribbean Islands (Montevideo: COMAR-COSALC, 1985).

Caribbean area Disaster News (St. John's, Antigua: UNDRO/PCDPPP). June 1989: "Telecommunications: The Feel of Hurricane Gilbert." September/December 1988, No. 15/16: "Lessons from Recent Events: Hurricane Gilbert," "Gilbert in the Caribbean area," "Gilbert Smashes Jamaica," and "Hurricane Joan."

Collymore, J. Planning Hurricane Mitigation for Caribbean Agriculture (unpublished paper) (Blacksburg, Virginia: Virginia Polytechnic Institute, 1987).

Commonwealth Science Council. Coastal Zone Management of the Caribbean Region: A Status Report. Environmental Planning Programme Coastal Zone Direction of Tropical Islands (1987).

Davenport, A.G., Georgiou, P.N., and Surry, D. A Hurricane Current of air Gamble Study in the Eastern Caribbean area, Jamaica and Belize with Special Consideration to the Influence of the Topography (London, Ontario, Canada: The University of Western Ontario, 1985).

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ECLAC/UNEP. Natural Disasters Overview. Meeting of Government-Nominated Experts to Review the Draft Action Program for the Wider Caribbean Region, Caracas, Venezuela, 28 January -1 Feb, 1979 (Caracas: ECLAC/UNEP, 1979).

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Frank, N. Testimony before U.S. House of Representatives on August ix, 1984 in Congressional Tape (Washington D.C., 1984).

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Tomblin, J. "Natural Disasters in the Caribbean: A Review of Hazards and Vulnerability" in Caribbean Disaster Preparedness Seminar, Saint Lucia, June, 1979 (Washington, D.C.: OFDA/USAID, 1979).

- "Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Hurricanes: A Review of Natural Hazards and Vulnerability in the West Indies" in Ambio, vol. 10, no. 6 (1981).

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